S03E15 - Making Predictions with Going to / Will

Hello and welcome to today's episode of the Gold Forest English podcast. As always, my name is Jordan.

Today, I want to talk about a grammar point that confuses a lot of students, even at higher levels. It's the difference between going to and will when we use them to talk about the future, specifically for predictions. So we're saying what we think is going to happen, or what we think will happen.

These two forms, going to and will, are both very common for predictions, and in many situations you can use either one. Both are okay. People will still understand you. But there is a small, important difference in the feeling, in the nuance. If you understand this difference, you can sound much more natural, and you'll be able to express your thoughts more precisely.

So let's start with going to. When we use going to for a prediction, we're making a prediction based on evidence. We can see something, we can hear something, we can know or feel something right now, and that evidence tells us what is going to happen next.

For example, you look out the window and you can see very dark clouds. So imagine these big, dark, heavy clouds. They're full of rain. You can say, "Look at those clouds. It's going to rain." You are not guessing completely. You have some evidence. You can see these dark clouds. They are making you think that it will rain in the future. So a clear English prediction would be, "It's going to rain." Or "I think it's going to rain."

For another example, imagine you're watching a football match. One team is playing really, really well, and the other team seems tired, slow, and out of practice. You can say, "That team is playing so well. They're going to win." Again, you're looking at the situation right now, and you're making a prediction based on the evidence, the things that you can see.

Now, let's think about will. When we use will for predictions, the prediction is often based on our opinion, our belief, our knowledge, maybe a general feeling about the future. It doesn't have to be connected with something we can see or hear right now. It's more of a guess, more of a feeling, something that we believe to be true about the future, but we're maybe less sure because we don't have any evidence to support it.

So, for example, we could say, "I think it will rain next week." In this situation, maybe I'm guessing about the weather forecast. It's a feeling. I'm saying what I think about the future, but I don't have any immediate evidence in front of me. It's just my belief.

For another example, we could say, "Don't worry. I'm sure you'll pass the exam." So for this kind of situation, I can't see the future. I don't have evidence, but it's my opinion, it's my belief. I feel confident about your ability, so I could use will.

So, our core difference is: we use going to based on evidence that we can see, hear, or feel right now. We've got some information to tell us what will happen next. We can make predictions with going to. When we use will for making predictions, they are often more just personal opinion, belief, general ideas about the future, but less with evidence.

So, that's the main difference. But here's the important part that often makes students confused: these two forms of prediction overlap in many situations. The difference is very small. So in many situations, either one is perfectly fine to use.

For example, if the weather forecast says it will rain, you can say, "It's going to rain tomorrow" because you have the forecast as evidence. But you can also say, "It will rain tomorrow" based on your knowledge of the forecast. Both work.

So in casual conversation, people often mix them without thinking too much. The feeling is slightly different, but the meaning is almost the same. You're talking about the future.

So, to summarise: if you can point to something and say, "Look, that is why I think this," we should use a phrase like going to. "Look at those clouds. It's going to rain." If you're just sharing your belief, your hope, or an opinion about the future, we could use will. "I think it will rain next Tuesday." "I think he will be a great doctor one day."

So the basic test is to think: can I see it now? If you can see something now that helps you to believe about the future, we can use going to. It's stronger, and it's better, more natural English to use. If you can't see anything to make you think about the future, and it's just your personal, internal beliefs and thoughts, will is a better choice.

All right. So, that's it for today's episode. I do not have a blog post about this topic just yet, because this week I wrote about punctuation. I wrote a blog post and just posted it today, all about punctuation—British English and American English names for different punctuation marks. For example, the full stop at the end of a sentence is called a full stop in British English, but a period in American English.

This topic is not perfect for an audio podcast because it works much better when you can see what symbols I'm talking about. So this week's blog post is all about punctuation. Go and check that out if you're interested.

In the future, I'm going to do a deep-dive blog post on going to and will, and I will cover making plans for the future, making predictions, talking about arrangements, things like that. So today's podcast talks about one part of going to and will for the future. Later, there'll be a big blog post all about that, but not this week.

Thank you very much for listening. I hope you enjoyed this little talk about the future. I'll see you in the next episode. Goodbye.